“People who have visions should go see a doctor.” – Helmut Schmidt
Helmut Schmidt’s skeptical view humorously underscores a common distrust toward visionary thinking. Yet, in the era of artificial intelligence (AI), particularly large language models (LLMs) like GPT, “visions” -or as we might call them, “useful hallucinations” – can be immensely practical and insightful tools.
What Are Useful Hallucinations?
Hallucinations, in the context of AI, typically refer to generating statements or “facts” that are falsifiable or have no factual grounding in past reality. For past events, this is clearly problematic, as these can be checked against historical records. However, for future scenarios, the term “hallucination” takes on a different and potentially beneficial meaning. Future-oriented hallucinations involve generating plausible, imaginative scenarios that might occur, even if they are unlikely or have never been considered before.
Hallucinations as a Tool
In improvisational theater, performers routinely use hallucinations intentionally. When actors find themselves improvising unfamiliar scenarios, such as navigating a submarine during wartime, they “hallucinate” plausible details to enrich the scene. Here, mistakes or oddities are not just tolerated; they are essential elements of humor and engagement.
Similarly, large language models excel in generating and analyzing “what-if” scenarios. By presenting AI with imaginative prompts—like “Imagine you are a CEO facing an economic crisis,” or “Pretend you are planning an expedition to Mars”—we leverage AI’s strength in scenario generation and detailed analysis.
Embracing the Imaginative
A powerful example of structured hallucination is the Disney method, where individuals adopt various perspectives (creative, critical, financial) to thoroughly explore an idea. Participants effectively “hallucinate” how different personas would perceive and react to a given scenario, thus enhancing the depth and quality of decision-making.
Another compelling parallel can be found in mathematics with the imaginary unit “i” (the square root of minus one). Although mathematically “impossible” or “unreal,” its introduction simplifies and enables calculations that otherwise would be significantly more complex. This clearly demonstrates how accepting an initially nonsensical idea can lead to practical outcomes.
Philosophically, this idea aligns closely with Hans Vaihinger’s work The Philosophy of ‘As If’ (Die Philosophie des Als Ob). Vaihinger argues that humans often operate based on fictions or assumptions that are not literally true, but are nonetheless useful. In this framework, hallucinations—whether mental constructs or AI-generated scenarios—are not valued for their factual correctness but for their utility in guiding action and thought.
The estimated 10000 religions are per definitionem not “proofable” and mostly mutualy exclusive. Still most followers consider their religion as useful in their life.
AI-driven Scenario Generation
AI’s capability to generate diverse and detailed scenarios makes it ideal for strategic planning and risk management. Techniques such as Monte Carlo simulations or scenario loops enable the AI to explore numerous variations, from best-case and worst-case to the most probable outcomes. Human users can then select and further explore the scenarios that are most relevant or valuable to their objectives.
Practical Applications of Useful Hallucinations
Here are several practical examples of how useful hallucinations might be employed:
– Strategic Business Planning: AI can generate multiple future market scenarios to help businesses prepare flexible strategies.
– Personal Life Decisions: Individuals facing major life decisions (career shifts, moving abroad) can explore detailed “what-if” scenarios to evaluate possible outcomes and risks.
– Disaster Preparedness: Authorities can use AI-generated scenarios to anticipate potential crises and create comprehensive emergency response plans.
– Creative Writing and Game Design: AI can “hallucinate” intricate characters or worlds, providing rich material for storytelling or interactive experiences.